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ASIA: Vietnam CPI Rises as Trade Surplus Jumps

ASIA
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  • Vietnam’s January CPI YoY jumped to 3.63% from 2.94% in December, and significantly above the market expectations of 3.10%.
  • A recent BBG survey of market observers saw expectations for inflation in 2025 at 3.50%, down from 3.70% prior.
  • With GDP forecast to rise +6.7% YoY in 2025, the CPI result poses interesting challenges for the economy and its ability not to overheat.
  • The trade surplus data out January shows the Trade Balance jumping to $3.03bn, up from $524m in December.
  • Exports declined -4.3%, following December’s expansion of +12.8% and below market expectations for a rise of +3.3%.
  • Imports too declined markedly by -2.6%, from +19.2% in December.
  • Industrial Production too was weak rising just +0.6% in January, from +8.8% in December.
  • The bright spot was retail sales jumping +9.5%, from +9.3% prior.
  • The Lunar New Year holidays were earlier than normal this year, and are the likely source that disrupted the results.
  • Market observers expect very little from the State Bank of Vietnam in 2025, with rates expected to stay steady at 4.50%.  
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  • Vietnam’s January CPI YoY jumped to 3.63% from 2.94% in December, and significantly above the market expectations of 3.10%.
  • A recent BBG survey of market observers saw expectations for inflation in 2025 at 3.50%, down from 3.70% prior.
  • With GDP forecast to rise +6.7% YoY in 2025, the CPI result poses interesting challenges for the economy and its ability not to overheat.
  • The trade surplus data out January shows the Trade Balance jumping to $3.03bn, up from $524m in December.
  • Exports declined -4.3%, following December’s expansion of +12.8% and below market expectations for a rise of +3.3%.
  • Imports too declined markedly by -2.6%, from +19.2% in December.
  • Industrial Production too was weak rising just +0.6% in January, from +8.8% in December.
  • The bright spot was retail sales jumping +9.5%, from +9.3% prior.
  • The Lunar New Year holidays were earlier than normal this year, and are the likely source that disrupted the results.
  • Market observers expect very little from the State Bank of Vietnam in 2025, with rates expected to stay steady at 4.50%.