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Tsys Steady, Ranges Narrow, Jobless Claims Later

US TSYS
USStoryMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges, headlines this morning coming out of the Bessent interview with Fox, and the Fed's Jefferson doing little to move rates. TU is -00+ at 102-28 3/8, while TY is -00+ at 109-23+.
  • Overnight, In tsys options, notable flows included a large buyer of March puts, fading the rally and targeting a 10-year yield rise to approximately 4.55% ahead of Feb. 21 expiry
  • Treasury futures extended the rally into Wednesday's session, hitting a weekly high at 109-27. The TY contract is building on recent gains having cleanly topped resistance at the 50-day EMA of 109-10. This strengthens the short-term bullish case and highlights potential for a stronger reversal. This would open 109.30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is 108-20+, Tuesday’s low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal.
  • Cash tsys yields are trading roughly 1bps higher with the 10yr at 4.428%, after hitting a low of 4.400% overnight.
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 gain slightly vs. Wednesday levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -4.2bp (-4.1bp), May'25 at -11.9bp (-11.2bp), Jun'25 at -22.7bp (-22.1bp), Jul'25 at -29.1bp (-28.6bp).
  • Later today we have Jobless claims followed by Non farms on Friday
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  • Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges, headlines this morning coming out of the Bessent interview with Fox, and the Fed's Jefferson doing little to move rates. TU is -00+ at 102-28 3/8, while TY is -00+ at 109-23+.
  • Overnight, In tsys options, notable flows included a large buyer of March puts, fading the rally and targeting a 10-year yield rise to approximately 4.55% ahead of Feb. 21 expiry
  • Treasury futures extended the rally into Wednesday's session, hitting a weekly high at 109-27. The TY contract is building on recent gains having cleanly topped resistance at the 50-day EMA of 109-10. This strengthens the short-term bullish case and highlights potential for a stronger reversal. This would open 109.30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is 108-20+, Tuesday’s low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal.
  • Cash tsys yields are trading roughly 1bps higher with the 10yr at 4.428%, after hitting a low of 4.400% overnight.
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 gain slightly vs. Wednesday levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -4.2bp (-4.1bp), May'25 at -11.9bp (-11.2bp), Jun'25 at -22.7bp (-22.1bp), Jul'25 at -29.1bp (-28.6bp).
  • Later today we have Jobless claims followed by Non farms on Friday