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###/VIEW: (2/2)- Citi: Expect 6-2 majority......>

BOE
BOE: ###/VIEW: (2/2)- Citi: Expect 6-2 majority vote to keep monetary policy
unchanged due to the mounting evidence of economic slowdown.
- MS: With the output gap closed and inflation above target, a hike remains
possible. But with growth slow in 1H and inflation dipping, we see a narrow
majority (5-3) for unchanged policy. Expect hawkish tone to inflation report.
- JPM: With soft Q2 GDP and downside surprise in June CPI, MPC likely to hold
rates in a split 6-2 vote. See risk BoE raises rates before our Q3 2018 call due
to expected modest real income growth and clearer signs of smooth Brexit.
- RBC: Expect rates on hold with 5-3 vote and on hold for foreseeable future vs
extra stimulus in Q1 2018. No dramatic change in path for CPI vs May profile.
See limited scope for a hawkish surprise as 2 x 25bp hikes almost priced in.
- BAML: Expect 6-2 vote to keep rates on hold and see little disagreement with
market rate profile. Acknowledge rate call has come closer but expect no
majority for rate hikes this side of 2019.
- HSBC: Think MPC vote 6-2 to keep rates on hold, but risk of 5-3. Think growth
revised down, but CPI up a touch. Unemployment forecasts will be interesting.

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