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VIEW: ANZ Brings First Rate Cut Forward To August

NEW ZEALAND

ANZ has brought forward its first rate cut expectations by six months to August this year due to inflation returning to the target band by Q3, spare capacity increasing and the unemployment rate rising above 5%. But there remains significant uncertainty around the forecast with the risks the RBNZ moves before or after August “roughly balanced”. ANZ also still sees a chance of a February rate hike or even later in the year if inflation proves sticky.

  • The RBNZ is likely to remain cautious given the pickup in leading indicators.
  • ANZ have said that they don’t expect the RBNZ to give “a lot of advance warning of policy easing”, so that financial conditions don’t begin to ease earlier than desired. It believes that the market is underestimating how long the RBNZ will “deny” that it is about to begin cutting rates.
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