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VIEW: ANZ Don’t Believe Employment Data Enough For May RBA Hike

AUSTRALIA

ANZ economists believe that since the RBA paused in April to assess the impact of 350bp of tightening on the economy given the “long and variable lags”, the stronger-than-expected March employment report will not be enough for them to hike on May 2. ANZ expects another hike but not until August.

  • "We don’t think this will be enough for the RBA to return to hiking the cash rate in May, given its reasoning for pausing in April: to assess the impacts of the cumulative 350bp of hikes delivered so far, given the long lags of monetary policy," ANZ said.
  • "Given the RBA is forecasting unemployment of 3.6 per cent in 2Q and that a materially lower result than that looks unlikely, the probability of a positive surprise for the RBA in the near term is low."
    - The Australian
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