VIEW: ANZ expect "headline CPI rose.....>

NEW ZEALAND: VIEW: ANZ expect "headline CPI rose 0.3% in the March quarter, with

annual inflation slipping from 1.9% to 1.7%. Tradable inflation is expected to

print at -0.6% q/q, while non-tradable inflation is expected to post a 1.1% q/q

rise. We expect that measures of core inflation will track broadly sideways. CPI

in line with our expectations would add to the case that a cut in the OCR is not

a matter of urgency. The RBNZ would likely take some comfort from stronger

domestic inflation (lifting from 2.7% y/y to 2.8%), with weakness concentrated

in the relatively volatile and transitory tradable component. However, the

medium-term outlook for domestic inflation remains troubling. The RBNZ needs to

see accelerating GDP growth to achieve a sustained lift in inflation, and we

expect that by August it will be clear that an OCR cut is required to support

this."