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VIEW: ANZ Expects BI To Cut Rates Only After The Fed

INDONESIA

Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates at 6%, as was widely expected, and signalled that it can be patient before easing monetary policy given significant uncertainties and the desire to see further gains in the rupiah first. ANZ continues to expect BI to pivot once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely by Q3 but risks are skewed to sooner. It expects a terminal rate of 4.5-5%.

  • ANZ notes that BI expects the Fed funds rate to “remain elevated in H12024 and has pencilled in three cuts in H22024.”
  • There were “no major shifts” in the policy message and the meeting statement reiterated that the central bank remains focussed on FX stability and will continue with its special measures aimed at attracting foreign inflows.
  • BI left its forecasts unchanged expecting growth in 2024 to be 4.7-5.5% after 4.5-5.3% in 2023. Inflation should remain within the 2024 band of 1.5-3.5%.
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