VIEW: ANZ Still Look For A 25bp Hike Today

ANZ note that "it's a tough call for the RBNZ today, but in our minds a 25bp hike remains odds on. Fiscal policy is well placed to support households and businesses through this lockdown, and past experience shows that provided the health response is successful, it's very effective in supporting confidence and activity. If the lockdown isn't prolonged (a big if!), the impact on aggregate activity in Q3 will be minor, factoring in pent-up demand dynamics, the strong starting point for momentum, and fiscal support."

• "The Policy Assessment and decision will be finalised this morning. We think it makes sense for the Bank to react to the known (an overheated economy) and state they are ready to adapt to new info as it comes to hand. In "least regrets" terms, neither a short-lived hike in the worst-case scenario, or a six-week delay to hiking in the best case scenario, would be a particularly big deal for the economy - it's much more important that the health and fiscal policy responses are exactly on the mark. It's a tough decision for the RBNZ today, but the PM faces tougher ones."