ANZ note that “as was universally expected, the RBNZ lifted the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 50bp to 3.0% today. The tone of the Statement was hawkish, while acknowledging both domestic and global downside risks to growth. The RBNZ’s updated OCR forecast reaches a peak of 4.1% by mid-2023, versus the May MPS forecast of a peak of 3.95%. As before, cuts are pencilled in for 2024 (endpoint: 3.6%). The 15bp upward revision to the OCR peak is the bare minimum the RBNZ could have chosen in light of the very large upward revision to their non-tradable and wage inflation forecasts, in our view. The RBNZ is currently reassessing its estimates of the neutral OCR. Any upward revision will need to go 1:1 into the OCR track.”
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