Free Trial

VIEW: ANZ: Toru

RBNZ

ANZ note that “as was universally expected, the RBNZ lifted the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 50bp to 3.0% today. The tone of the Statement was hawkish, while acknowledging both domestic and global downside risks to growth. The RBNZ’s updated OCR forecast reaches a peak of 4.1% by mid-2023, versus the May MPS forecast of a peak of 3.95%. As before, cuts are pencilled in for 2024 (endpoint: 3.6%). The 15bp upward revision to the OCR peak is the bare minimum the RBNZ could have chosen in light of the very large upward revision to their non-tradable and wage inflation forecasts, in our view. The RBNZ is currently reassessing its estimates of the neutral OCR. Any upward revision will need to go 1:1 into the OCR track.”

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.