VIEW: ANZ & Westpac See New Jobs Keeping Jobless Rate Stable

ANZ and Westpac are predicting that the labour market developed in line with Bloomberg consensus in September. It is worth pointing out that job gains have averaged 37.7k this year, above expectations for September.

• ANZ said that “after the surge in employment in August, we expect a more moderate gain of 20k in September. Combined with a slight pullback from record high participation last month, this should be enough to keep unemployment tracking sideways at 3.7%. Other labour market indicators support the view that unemployment is unlikely to rise sharply in the near term.”
• Westpac observes that “businesses have demonstrated a remarkable ability to absorb the migration-driven surge in labour supply, although this dynamic will be tested as the broader economy continues to slow. We anticipate that the labour market will remain tight into year-end, before a more material degree of slackening emerges in 2024.”
• “For September, we expect the participation rate to pare-back slightly to 66.9%, resulting in the unemployment rate once again holding flat at 3.7%. The evolution of underemployment and hours worked in particular will continue to provide important signals at this current ‘turning point’.” (Westpac)