MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 3

MNI BRIEF: Professional Forecasters Up Inflation Outlook: ECB

MNI BRIEF: China To Fully Reopen Borders With HK and Macau

MNI DATA FORECASTS: RBA, Riksbank In Focus

MNI: US ISM JAN SERVICES COMPOSITE INDEX 55.2

RBA Watch

(RPT)MNI INTERVIEW: BOC In One And Done Zone - Chamber

Rpt- MNI INTERVIEW: BOC Losses May Dent Inflation Fight- Tombe

MNI BRIEF: EU Sees Statement After UK-EU Talks This Afternoon

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial
USDCAD TECHS

Key Support Remains Exposed

AUDUSD TECHS

Pullback Extends, But Still Looks Corrective in Nature

US TSYS

FED Remains in Play Post-NFP/ISM Data

US TSYS

Implied Vol Buoyed Post-NFP/ISM, Real Vol Delivered

US

President Biden To Conclude Infrastructure Tour In Philadelphia

US STOCKS

Late Equity Roundup: Early Support Evaporates Ahead Weekend

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
Trending Top 5
Market News Topics

VIEW: Barclays: Time For The BoK To Recalibrate Its Policy Function

BOK
EM BulletFixed Income NewsHomepageBulletMarketsEmerging Markets NewsForeign Exchange News

Barclays note that “with Q4 GDP registering a contraction, we believe the Bank of Korea (BoK) has to shift its gears for a policy turnaround and a 25bp cut in Q4 23."

  • “In our view, the BoK governor's clearly more dovish tone in the foreign correspondents club meeting - compared with the post-Monetary Policy Committee press conference just a week earlier - underscored the BoK's concern about the combination of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in external demand and a moderation in domestic demand momentum. This suggests a gradual recalibration of the bank's policy function towards balancing growth, inflation, and financial stability, and away from the focus on curbing inflation.”
  • “Our base case remains for the BoK to remain on hold through Q3 and a 25bp cut in Q4, as early as the October meeting. We continue to believe the hurdle for additional hikes is high.”
  • “Going into H2, we expect the MPC's discussion to become more focused on risks to growth. In our baseline, we do not expect a substantial easing cycle into 2024, given our view of a pickup in exports and investment in H2, as well as structural financial imbalances such as high household debt and an over-leveraged corporate sector. That said, risk of additional cuts could increase.”
209 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

Barclays note that “with Q4 GDP registering a contraction, we believe the Bank of Korea (BoK) has to shift its gears for a policy turnaround and a 25bp cut in Q4 23."

  • “In our view, the BoK governor's clearly more dovish tone in the foreign correspondents club meeting - compared with the post-Monetary Policy Committee press conference just a week earlier - underscored the BoK's concern about the combination of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in external demand and a moderation in domestic demand momentum. This suggests a gradual recalibration of the bank's policy function towards balancing growth, inflation, and financial stability, and away from the focus on curbing inflation.”
  • “Our base case remains for the BoK to remain on hold through Q3 and a 25bp cut in Q4, as early as the October meeting. We continue to believe the hurdle for additional hikes is high.”
  • “Going into H2, we expect the MPC's discussion to become more focused on risks to growth. In our baseline, we do not expect a substantial easing cycle into 2024, given our view of a pickup in exports and investment in H2, as well as structural financial imbalances such as high household debt and an over-leveraged corporate sector. That said, risk of additional cuts could increase.”