VIEW: Barclays write "through 2019, the RBA.....>

RBA: VIEW: Barclays write "through 2019, the RBA has maintained a positive

central scenario but continues to acknowledge downside risks to its base case.

With the sharp drop in inflation in Q1 2019, the risk of a rate cut by the RBA

has risen, something the market has been pricing in. The statement makes it

clear, that while the trend of confusing data signals in the form of a strong

labour market, weak GDP growth, large trade surpluses and weak household

spending may continue, the RBA's focus will remain on the improvement in the

labour market, and its usage as an indicator of spare capacity in the economy.

We will continue to observe the employment data very closely in the next three

months. If the trend unemployment rate starts to rise toward 5.2-5.5%, we think

the RBA may consider cutting the policy rate by 25-50bp in H2 19. However, the

decision reaffirmed our view that the RBA is more likely to stay on hold in

2019."