VIEW: CBA Look For RBA To Hike In November 2022

CBA note that "the Australian labour market has tightened at a phenomenal pace and underutilisation in May was at its lowest since early 2013. The forward-looking indicators of labour demand are very strong yet labour supply is constrained, which means the labour market will continue to tighten very quickly and wages growth will accelerate. The Commonwealth fiscal stance as well as the targeted level of net overseas immigration in 2022/23 will have a large bearing on nominal wage outcomes and therefore the path of interest rates. We expect the RBA to begin normalising monetary policy in late 2022 (November) and see the cash rate target at 0.5% at end‑2022 and then peaking at 1.25% by Q3 2023."