VIEW: CBA note "AUD/USD has been on a........>

AUSSIE: VIEW: CBA note "AUD/USD has been on a rollercoaster ride in '20. AUD/USD

sunk to an 18-year low of $0.5510 in mid-March before surging nearly 30% in the

following 3 months. AUD has consolidated at $0.68-0.70. However, we think the

ride is not over just yet. The recent AUD consolidation is just a pause for

breath. AUD can fall back towards $0.6660 in the near-term. Coronavirus cases in

some southern & western US states are surging. The higher the # of cases the

bigger the risk that either neighbourhood, city-wide or state-wide restrictions

are reinstated. US lockdowns risk slowing the recovery in the US and the world

economies. This would support the USD and undermine AUD/USD. However, we believe

it will take a larger catalyst to push AUD/USD back towards $0.6000. That

catalyst could be country-wide, rather than localised, lockdowns in the US.

Country-wide restrictions could lead to a double-dip US recession and cause the

counter-cyclical USD to surge. However, we believe there is a high hurdle to

implementing widespread lockdowns. Policymakers now know the economic toll of

turning an economy off is very high. The high costs of lockdowns have made

policymakers reach for local restrictions rather than widespread restrictions."