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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z2) Remains Vulnerable

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z2) More Stable, But Remains Fragile

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Correct: View Change: JPM expects 75bp in November with 4.25% terminal rate

BOE
  • "We revise our forecast to 75bps for the time being. The BoE’s dovish surprise yesterday and the lack of clarity in its reaction function is an added risk factor at the moment."
  • JP Morgan push the terminal rate forecast to 4.25% (from 4.00% previously) with 50bp in both December and February and then 25bp in and March. (Corrects February hike to 50bp).
  • "Any forecast is hugely dependent on MPC commentary from here."
  • "Markets expect rates to rise to over 5% - a reaction that cannot be explained by the mechanical impact of today’s fiscal easing alone, and instead reflects a broader loss of investor confidence in the government’s approach."
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  • "We revise our forecast to 75bps for the time being. The BoE’s dovish surprise yesterday and the lack of clarity in its reaction function is an added risk factor at the moment."
  • JP Morgan push the terminal rate forecast to 4.25% (from 4.00% previously) with 50bp in both December and February and then 25bp in and March. (Corrects February hike to 50bp).
  • "Any forecast is hugely dependent on MPC commentary from here."
  • "Markets expect rates to rise to over 5% - a reaction that cannot be explained by the mechanical impact of today’s fiscal easing alone, and instead reflects a broader loss of investor confidence in the government’s approach."