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VIEW CHANGE: BNP looks for first cut in June rather than August

BOE
  • BNP now looks for the first cut in June rather than August, but continues to look for a cumulative 75bp of cuts in 2024 and 100bp of cuts to 3.50% in 2025.
  • “Given the upwards revisions to the BoE’s forecast and the fact that it was willing to shift in a dovish direction despite services inflation having overshoot its February projection by around 20bp, we think it unlikely inflation will be sufficiently high to prevent a June cut.”
  • “The BoE’s updated inflation projections support our view that more cuts will be delivered than markets price.”
  • “Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden’s comments support our view that QT is likely to continue even as rate cuts are delivered.”
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