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View Change: Citi: 25bp hikes in Sep and Nov, but debate to be zero or 25bp

BOE
  • “While the MPC have given us little to go on, we are doubtful this reflects an enduring pivot. Instead, the medium term inflation forecasts are among some of the weakest ever seen for the BoE. The upward skew to the inflation profile has gone. The MPC is no longer guiding towards further hikes.”
  • Citi expects 25bp hikes in September and November to 2.25% (previously had expected 2.50% by end-2022), with cuts in August 2023, November 2023 and March 2024.
  • “The committee now notes ‘changes’ in policy rather than ‘increases’ will depend on the economic data.”
  • “The committee did continue to refer to the potential for further forceful moves should evidence of more persistent inflation continue to intensify. The latter do mean outsized moves will remain a risk throughout the winter. However, in the near term we see the risk to the MPC’s forecasts as to the downside. In our view, the risks increasingly skewed towards the 0-25bps range.”
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