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View Change: Citi: A longer rather than more sudden hiking cycle

BOE
  • “The MPC’s decision [yesterday] constitutes an abandonment of guidance, rather than its replacement. The removal of any reference to further tightening ‘in the coming months‘ could actually be interpreted as dovish at the margin. However, we think the disproportionate focus on inflation and cost pressures, rather than growth, in the minutes suggests a hawkish shift largely by omission.”
  • “We think softening growth is beginning to weigh. We therefore still see a further 25bps hike as more likely.”
  • “In the coming months, developments in headline wage growth, DMP price expectations and the agents' pay data are now central to the risk of 50bps. If these fail to moderate, an out sized move in August will be more likely than not.”
  • “Expect a longer rather than necessarily more sudden hiking cycle, with further 25bps hikes in September and November.”
  • “The near term risks remain skewed in a hawkish direction, though cuts still seem more likely than hikes in 2023.”
  • Citi continues to pencil in two 25bp cuts in H2-23.
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