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View Change: ING now looks for Bank Rate at 2.00% this year

BOE
  • “The hawkish spin in the policy statement suggests a 50bp hike is entirely possible in August.”
  • “Today’s decision should, we think, be read as another sign that the Bank isn’t going to tighten nearly as much as markets expect... The most recent BoE forecasts from May, which were premised on a terminal rate of 2.6%, showed inflation well below target at the end of the forecast horizon. We’ll probably get a similar result when the Bank updates its numbers in August.”
  • “We imagine the committee will look to raise rates to the 2% area by the end of this year, which is probably roughly consistent with neutral. Whether that takes the form of a 50bp hike in August and follow-up 25bp in the autumn, or simply three consecutive 25bp moves, will depend more on other central banks and what the pound does between now and the next meeting.”
  • ING had previously looked for Bank Rate at 1.75% this year with 25bp hikes in August and September.
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