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View Change: MS add extra hike to forecast

BOE
  • Expect 25bp hike in June with 9-0 vote and unchanged guidance.
  • "The risks are skewed towards two MPC members – Saunders and Mann – voting for a 50bp move, while one member – likely Cunliffe – could dissent and call for a pause"
  • "Three key shifts in policy and data: i) The 1Q22 labour market release was very strong... ii) The growth slowdown, projected in the MPC forecasts since last February, is here – with the May services PMI sliding to its lowest levels since 1Q21... iii) A £15 billion fiscal package."
  • "Still think the non-forecast September meeting is the likely moment when the pace of tightening slows - and see a pause then. Still, the 1Q22 labour market data was a bit better than we had expected, the ECB has gotten more hawkish, with potential implications for the sterling TWI, and there seems to be more certainty around the delivery of another fiscal package in the autumn. With that, we now introduce another hike in November, and front-load the May 2023 hike into February."
  • "We see the Bank Rate peaking at 2.0%,and expect active QT from 4Q22, at£10bn/quarter."
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