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VIEW CHANGE: Nomura look for 25bp hike tomorrow

ECB
  • Nomura notes that the Reuters sources story was important and that "it is the exact same journalist, and likely same source, used in previous Reuters stories which have led the ECB narrative immediately prior to the ECB meeting during the blackout period."
  • "With the ECB now likely hiking in response to stronger inflation forecasts, we see risks that the ECB ends up hiking above 4%, however, as we see a strong probability of them having to raise further their inflation forecasts in the December macro projection round. You could easily imagine that the ECB hikes tomorrow, skips October in order to reassess the transmission of monetary policy, but ends up hiking again in December in response to likely having to further raise its inflation forecasts"
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