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View change: Nordea look for 50bp in February with 3.00% terminal rate

RIKSBANK
  • Nordea now expects a final Riksbank hike 50bp of February (rather than 25bp) to a terminal rate of 3.00%. It continues to expect rate cuts in 2024 back to 2.00% (starting in H1-24).
  • "The main reason for the changed forecast is the ECB’s hawkish message last week. Much suggest that the ECB will hike rates by 50bp in February and there is an imminent risk of further tightening thereafter. The SEK exchange rate is vulnerable and there is a risk of further weakening."
  • Nordea also points to more pressure from electricity prices and the tighter labour market but notes that core inflation and contained inflation expectations "point to a more modest rate hike."
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