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View change: UBS looks for 25bp at each meeting this year; 50bp risk in Aug

BOE
  • “Given the MPC's relatively resilient assessment of underlying activity and the labour market with rising concerns of more persistent inflationary pressures, we now expect the MPC to continue hiking until the end of the year.”
  • Expect 25bp hikes at each meeting to 2.25% “which we would expect to be the terminal rate in this cycle.”
  • UBS had previously expected one more 25bp hike in August with the terminal rate at 1.50%.
  • “If inflation (22 June; 20 July) and labour market data (19 July) were to show signs of more persistent inflationary pressure, the risk of a 50bps hike in August would rise significantly.”
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