Free Trial

VIEW: Deutsche Bank Predicting Global Recession


Deutsche Bank believes that a global recession will be hard to avoid if central banks are to win against inflation. It is also predicting a 25% fall in major equity markets.

  • Its research finds that previous episodes where core inflation falls by at least 2pp, unemployment rises by at least 2pp and in most cases there is at least a mild recession.
  • Deutsche is forecasting global growth to slow to 2% in 2023 with GDP contracting by 1% in the euro area next year and by 1.25% in the US.
  • They see the risks to the Fed funds rate to the upside but their central case is for it to peak at 5.1% in May 2023. As a result the USD should decline and Deutsche expects EURUSD to reach 1.15 late in the year.
    - The Australian

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.