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Free AccessVIEW: Goldman Bring Forward Rate Cut View
Late on Thursday Goldman Sachs noted that they are pulling forward their forecast for the first ECB policy rate cut from Q324 to Q224.
- This comes as they lower their inflation forecast profile and flag German fiscal headwinds alongside a modest markdown in their Eurozone GDP growth forecast profile.
- They also warn that “the labour market is now showing clear signs of slowing.”
- They look for “a gradual cutting cycle with 25bp moves per quarter.”
- Continued firm nominal wage growth is cited as a contributory factor to this view.
- They note that “while we see a significant hurdle for rate cuts before Q2, the risks around our baseline are clearly skewed towards a faster cutting cycle if inflation continues to slow more quickly than expected or if growth fails to improve next year.”
- They also maintain their baseline that “the Council will announce in January to limit PEPP reinvestments to EUR10bn per month from April, before stopping all reinvestments from Q324. But a formal decision is possible already in December.”
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.