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MEXICAN PESO: VIEW: Goldman Sachs are recommending that "investors go long
USD/MXN, indexed to 100, with a total return target of 108 & a stop of 96. MXN
longs are underpinned by (i) one of the most attractive combinations of high
real carry and deep undervaluation in EM FX, (ii) significant room to retrace
back to a pre-coronacrisis level of around 19 for USD/MXN, (iii) an overall mix
of currency-supportive macro fundamentals in Mexico, and, (iv) arguably, a
reduced likelihood that Mexico will resurface as a campaign issue in the US
after official meetings around the recent enactment of the USMCA trade
agreement. While the potential rewards of MXN longs are high, a short USD/MXN
view is also higher-octane than our recommendations to go short the Dollar
versus Euro area satellites, and involves a different mix of risks. Overall,
given the Peso's high beta to both global risk sentiment and the broad Dollar,
the path for MXN will depend, in large part, on the degree to which COVID risks
will be a speedbump, rather than a roadblock, to the ongoing upswing in global
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |