VIEW: Goldman Sachs Look For More Aggressive BoT From Backend Of ‘22

Goldman Sachs note that “going forward, as tourism recovers and core inflation pressures build, amid rising risks that current price pressures broaden out across the CPI basket as medium-term inflation expectations rise and as other regional central banks join the global hiking cycle, we factor in a faster pace of policy normalization by BoT. We now expect BoT to start tightening policy with a 25bp hike at the September 28 meeting, with consecutive 25bp hikes at each meeting thereafter through Q323, for a cumulative 50bp of hikes this year, and 100bp of hikes next year. This would take the terminal policy rate to 2.0% by Q323 (compared to our prior forecast of 2.0% by Q124).”