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EGBS: VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that "sovereign spreads have had three strong
tailwinds in the last month: the Franco-German Recovery Fund proposal, ECB
over-delivery, and a re-acceleration of growth. Although the backdrop remains
much improved, we think that upside surprises on each of these dimensions is now
harder. As expected, there was little progress from this week's EU Council,
setting the stage for Recovery Fund negotiations in July. During these
negotiations it is possible that the Recovery Fund is whittled back down towards
EUR500bn with a mix of grants and loans. ECB policy has settled into a strong
underlying pace, but net supply in the periphery remains broadly balanced rather
than deeply negative. Finally, while growth remains strong, the sequential
monthly pace of activity is set to slow. Overall valuation signals are neutral
here, suggesting modest room for spread compression. Within the periphery, 10y
Italy currently scans as cheap relative Portugal."