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VIEW: Goldman Still Look For 4.10% Terminal Cash Rate

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Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expect “Australian inflation to decelerate through 2023 alongside a normalization in travel-related costs, disinflation in global goods prices and the lagged impact of tighter monetary policy. However, today’s higher starting point for trimmed mean inflation will keep pressure on the RBA to keep tapping rates higher. While it is feasible the RBA pauses the tightening cycle at some stage over the coming quarter, we expect such a large inflation overshoot and accelerating wages growth will see the RBA deliver a series of monthly +25bp rate hikes to a terminal rate of 4.10% by May.”

  • There is no change in their terminal cash rate call.
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Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expect “Australian inflation to decelerate through 2023 alongside a normalization in travel-related costs, disinflation in global goods prices and the lagged impact of tighter monetary policy. However, today’s higher starting point for trimmed mean inflation will keep pressure on the RBA to keep tapping rates higher. While it is feasible the RBA pauses the tightening cycle at some stage over the coming quarter, we expect such a large inflation overshoot and accelerating wages growth will see the RBA deliver a series of monthly +25bp rate hikes to a terminal rate of 4.10% by May.”

  • There is no change in their terminal cash rate call.