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VIEW: ING Expect RBNZ To Hike OCR By 25bp Next Week

RBNZ

ING note that they "expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates by 25bp at its 18 August meeting, and see at least one more hike by year-end. Such a move has been fully priced in, and much of the market reaction will likely depend on the forward guidance on future tightening. We think NZD still has significant room to benefit from the RBNZ's hawkishness in 2021".

  • They note that "suspect that the NZD is still far from having fully benefitted from the higher RBNZ rate expectations, as a generalized risk-off sentiment – especially in China, to which NZD is highly sensitive – and the further unwinding of reflation trades acted as offsetting factors."
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