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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

CHINA: VIEW: ING write "apart from implementing the special re-lending program
of CNY300bn announced earlier, the PBoC is going to encourage fin'l institutions
to support measures to help smaller firms affected by Covid-19. This will
include extending loan repayment dates, provide special credit facilities to
affected industries' private enterprises & smaller firms, as well as reduce the
interest burden on these cos if necessary. The objective is to prevent a domino
effect of a broken liquidity chain... There is increasingly more of a burden on
banks. Extending repayments & providing extra credits means that there will be
extra capital pressure. Liquidity is not an issue yet as we expect PBoC can
manage liquidity through OMOs or targeted RRR cuts. We expect the PBoC will cut
the RRR from 12.5% to 12.0% for targeted use of the liquidity. We believe that
only some banks can enjoy these targeted cuts or only loans that match a set of
requirements to provide critical funding to cos that are eligible for these
targeted RRR cuts. We estimate that these measures could release ~CNY400bn of
liquidity. A broad-based RRR cut could release liquidity of around CNY1.0tn."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |