VIEW: J.P.Morgan: A 50bp Hike In September, Followed By A Pause

Late on Friday J.P.Morgan noted that “there is no doubt in our mind that the ECB at its next meeting on 8 September will revise its inflation projections considerably higher whereas it is less likely that there will be sufficient information - short of a gas rationing shock – to change significantly the growth forecast. In our view, this further upward inflation revision will not fail to make an impression on the Governing Council, even though uncertainty about growth prospects is likely to be high. Against this backdrop - and keeping in mind our modal view of a mild recession around the turn of the year - we now expect the ECB to hike 50bp in September, rather than proceed in two 25bp steps in September and October. After having taken the policy rate to 50bp in September, we then expect the ECB to be somewhat more sensitive to that activity data and to pause its rate hikes in October - by that time it may be clearer that the Euro area economy heading in to outright contraction.”