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VIEW: J.P.Morgan "take a look at the...>

AUSSIE BONDS
AUSSIE BONDS: VIEW: J.P.Morgan "take a look at the AUD 3s/s10s par curve. Over a
longer term horizon, we note that the curve has broken a key trendline this
year. This biases us towards a steeper curve over the medium term. But near
term, our model suggests that the curve is a little steep to fair value (around
one standard deviation). We would look to fade any further steepening to the
+75bp level; this would represent a two-sigma deviation assuming no material
change in fair value. Moreover, our colleagues in USD and EUR rates strategy see
fundamental reasons for steeper curves in US and European rates markets; and
while the beta of moves in the AUD 3s/10s curve to global curves is around 0.3,
we note that flatteners appear to be the more widely subscribed position
locally."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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