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VIEW: JP Morgan Expects A US Recession But Not A Global One

GLOBAL

JP Morgan does not see an “imminent risk” of a global recession but it is forecasting growth of less than 1.5% in 2023, according to The Australian. Inflation is expected to moderate to 3.5% as supply-chain issues are resolved.

  • JP Morgan is still predicting a recession in the US starting by the end of 2024 and that the Fed will respond soon after by cutting rates. It expects that lower inflation will boost US consumption.
  • Developed countries are expected to reduce the fiscal drag, while non-China Asia’s service sector should recover.
  • JP Morgan’s alternative scenario involves growth remaining resilient with central banks pausing after Q1 2023 and as a result, inflation becomes persistent driving further rate hikes and thus a global recession in 2024.
    - The Australian
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