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SWEDEN: VIEW: JP Morgan No Longer Expect March Riksbank Cut

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JP Morgan have removed a March Riksbank cut from their forecast, now expecting the next 25bp cut in May (previously saw 25bp cuts at both meetings).

  • Although JPM “strongly doubt that the underlying inflation trend has suddenly changed dramatically” following today’s flash CPI data, they admit “the optics look bad”.
  • “Despite various growth indicators recently moving in favor of our call of two more cuts, we remove the March cut from our forecast”.
  • They suspect rents were one culprit behind the stronger-than-expected CPI print, alongside potential basket effects from the annual reweighting process.  
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JP Morgan have removed a March Riksbank cut from their forecast, now expecting the next 25bp cut in May (previously saw 25bp cuts at both meetings).

  • Although JPM “strongly doubt that the underlying inflation trend has suddenly changed dramatically” following today’s flash CPI data, they admit “the optics look bad”.
  • “Despite various growth indicators recently moving in favor of our call of two more cuts, we remove the March cut from our forecast”.
  • They suspect rents were one culprit behind the stronger-than-expected CPI print, alongside potential basket effects from the annual reweighting process.