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RBNZ: VIEW: KiwiBank write "The RBNZ's MPC decided to keep the OCR unch. at
1.50% as exp., but signalled that further stimulus was on its way. In the
Summary Record of Meeting the "members agreed that more support from monetary
policy was likely to be necessary". The one-page statement was short & direct
and clearly dovish. The econ outlook, both at home & abroad, has deteriorated
since the May MPS and "a lower OCR may be needed over time to continue to meet
our objectives". In our view, the RBNZ is poised to cut the OCR in August to
1.25%. The question remains: do the RBNZ have to follow the RBA & other central
banks below 1%? We think it is increasingly likely. The global outlook has
deteriorated, and central banks around the world are lining up and are either
adding stimulus or are preparing to do so. The MPC is clearly concerned about
the flow through to confidence from a weaker global econ. The latest readings on
biz confidence are due to be released over the next week. Like us, the MPC
looked through the strength of last week's GDP figures, and noted the softness
seen in the services sector. For the RBNZ, the outlook is more important, and
recent indicators suggest growth will weaken in the near-term."