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VIEW: Last Hike More Likely In February

RBA
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Barclays “continue to think that the bank will only hike one more time in this cycle and think that the timing for this hike will be the point of discussion within the bank as they meet for the 7 February decision.”

  • “Still, inflation was higher than consensus and our forecast, and rose sequentially, which in our view will not be enough to allow the bank to a pause in February.”
  • “The RBA has been more concerned about growth - both global and domestic - than inflation for the past few decisions. We think the bank's outlook for growth will now be the determinant for the decision, rather than actual outcomes.”
  • “Both these combined now suggest to us that a more likely time for the RBA to deliver its last hike will be in February, rather than March, which we had expected earlier.”
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Barclays “continue to think that the bank will only hike one more time in this cycle and think that the timing for this hike will be the point of discussion within the bank as they meet for the 7 February decision.”

  • “Still, inflation was higher than consensus and our forecast, and rose sequentially, which in our view will not be enough to allow the bank to a pause in February.”
  • “The RBA has been more concerned about growth - both global and domestic - than inflation for the past few decisions. We think the bank's outlook for growth will now be the determinant for the decision, rather than actual outcomes.”
  • “Both these combined now suggest to us that a more likely time for the RBA to deliver its last hike will be in February, rather than March, which we had expected earlier.”