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VIEW: NAB Expects At Least One More Rate Hike

RBA

NAB has returned to its February call that rates will peak at 4.1% in August but possibly could be in July. It also sees risks skewed to the upside with a possible peak at 4.35% if the data “stays stronger for longer”.

  • It has revised up its cash rate forecast due to RBA expectations that inflation won’t return to the top of the target band until mid-2025 and that the risks to inflation are still to the upside. Higher rates are likely needed to achieve that.
  • NAB points out that the change in its projection is not because of last week’s budget which it believes was “broadly neutral” in terms of its effect on inflation.
  • Rates are still expected to return to a more neutral 3.1% by mid-2024 driven by slower growth.
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