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VIEW: Oxford Economics Doesn’t Expect China To Reopen Until H2 2023


Oxford Economics is forecasting that China will not exit from its Zero-Covid Policy until the second half of 2023, which is further out than expectations of a spring reopening, as reported by The Australian. The economic research consultancy believes that political and epidemiological reasons will keep China from reopening before June.

  • Oxford believes that there will be “fine-tuning” to the policy before full re-opening but lockdowns will continue in cities with outbreaks.
  • The key “Two Sessions” plenary meetings take place in March 2023 and economic policy announcements also occur around this time.
  • The boost to the economy when China does reopen could be offset by rising infections, especially because of the low vaccination rate and strained health care services.
    - The Australian

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