VIEW: Oxford Economics Doesn’t Expect China To Reopen Until H2 2023

Oxford Economics is forecasting that China will not exit from its Zero-Covid Policy until the second half of 2023, which is further out than expectations of a spring reopening, as reported by The Australian. The economic research consultancy believes that political and epidemiological reasons will keep China from reopening before June.

• Oxford believes that there will be “fine-tuning” to the policy before full re-opening but lockdowns will continue in cities with outbreaks.
• The key “Two Sessions” plenary meetings take place in March 2023 and economic policy announcements also occur around this time.
• The boost to the economy when China does reopen could be offset by rising infections, especially because of the low vaccination rate and strained health care services.
  - The Australian