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VIEW: RBC See Downside Risk To Feb GDP, Strikes To Weigh Ahead

CANADA
  • Despite a strong start to 2023 and growth that surged higher through March, RBC expect the increase in February’s monthly GDP to be weaker than Statistics Canada’s initial flash estimate of 0.3% (released Apr 28).
  • They expect GDP to have remained slow in March, as oil drilling activity may have continued to pick up, but hours worked rose less than in in the prior two months.
  • Looking ahead, RBC estimate that the current strike by Federal workers could be enough to push GDP into negative territory in April, subtracting 0.2/0.3pps from April GDP if it lasts the whole month, in what would add to cracks that they’re expecting to have begun building in Feb and March.
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