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RIKSBANK
RIKSBANK: VIEW: SEB note that "the COVID-19 pandemic has brought the world
economy to an unprecedented halt. Record-sized government and central bank
stimulus measures will have their main impact only after a delay. This autumn,
unemployment will climb to levels not seen since the 1930s. According to the
main scenario in SEB's new Nordic Outlook forecast, GDP in the developed
countries will shrink by 7 per cent in 2020, followed by an upturn of 5 per cent
in 2021. Despite a more V-shaped recovery than in comparable historical crises,
the GDP level at the end of next year will be well below earlier forecasts -
about 5 percentage points lower in the OECD - and unemployment will be far
higher. Sweden's relatively gentle lockdown strategy will limit the downturn in
its economy compared to the other Nordic countries, but the nearly 7 per cent
drop in GDP we expect this year is still the largest in modern times. Meanwhile
unemployment in Sweden will climb to a record-high 14 per cent. General
government debt will reach 50 per cent of GDP and the Riksbank expand its bond
purchases by another SEK 300 billion."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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