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VIEW: TD Securities: Go Hard, Go Early

RBNZ

TD Securities revised their OCR forecast "following strong Q3 CPI and employment prints. The Bank now risks not meeting its medium term remit and we now expect a more aggressive move in taking the cash rate to neutral. We expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 25bp at this month's meeting but concede a 50bp is a distinct possibility. We pencil in 50bp hikes at the Feb '22 and Apr '22 meetings and 25bp hikes at the following 3 meetings, taking the OCR to 2.50%. The risk to our forecasts is for the Bank to pause when the OCR is within a 1.75-2% range. That said we believe markets are underpricing the risk of the RBNZ front loading hikes to re-anchor inflation expectations. We anticipate higher front end yields and a flatter curve."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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