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VIEW: TD Securities Mark RBA Rate Call Higher

RBA

TD Securities now expect the RBA's target cash rate to peak at 4.35%.”

  • “The monthly inflation print for April revealed a surprise on the headline while the new refreshed trimmed mean measure at 6.7% y/y has drifted further away from the RBA's Q223 6% y/y forecast in the May SoMP.”
  • “This morning's Fair Wage Commission decision sees those on the national minimum wage receiving an 8.6% bump and a 5.75% increase in the modern award wage. These are likely to challenge the RBA's wage forecasts for wage growth to peak at 4% in Q423, given the weighted average increase in wages comes in at 5.95%.”
  • “We now expect the RBA to hike the cash rate next week to 4.10%, and expect another hike to be delivered before or at the August meeting to take the terminal cash rate to 4.35%.”
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
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