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VIEW: Tuesday saw Bank of America Research......>

RBA
RBA: VIEW: Tuesday saw Bank of America Research note that "the Reserve Bank of
Australia's aggressive balance-sheet expansion through 3yr yield targeting and
liquidity injections has been successful, in our view. Funding conditions have
eased significantly and market functioning appears more orderly. The outlook for
government deficits and the RBA's recent tapering of bond purchases are holding
long-end swap spreads at record tights and AUD curves steep relative to other
core markets. Yet, there has been little discussion of negative rates in AU, so
bull steepening for the curve has also been capped. However, the next challenge
for the RBA is management of system liquidity. There is AUD46bn worth of
repurchase agreements dating from March due for maturity next month. We expect
the RBA to resume bond purchases to buffer some of the impact. This would lead
to flatter curves, tighter Semi spreads, wider long-end swap spreads and the
tempering of AU US 10yr spread widening. We like paying June-20 OIS (vs 3yr
rates) as a hedge to further RBA market normalization. Risk is for more extended
RBA tapering and steeper global curves."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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