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RBNZ
RBNZ: VIEW: Westpac note that "at every utterance from the Reserve Bank, we
learn more about how the new dual mandate and Governor are going to impact
interest rates and the economy. Today's MPS reinforces our impression that the
"new" Reserve Bank is more dovish than the old. We suspect that the tone of
today's MPS is going to become a theme. Over the coming year, we expect the
general tone of economic data to improve due to the Government's spending binge
and the recent RBNZ-induced drop in mortgage rates that will stimulate housing
market. Consequently, we expect core inflation to gradually trend higher. Yet we
remain very comfortable forecasting no OCR hike until mid-2020. At each Monetary
Policy Statement and OCR Review, we expect that the RBNZ will remain sanguine in
spite of strengthening data. That could surprise financial markets. We expect
the shift to a committee structure for OCR decisions will reinforce this
behavioural change from the Reserve Bank."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com