/VIEW: Westpac on the RBA minutes: The final....>

RBA: /VIEW: Westpac on the RBA minutes: The final paragraph in the

Considerations for Monetary Policy section was along the lines of the

corresponding paragraph in the Decision Statement by the Governor following the

June meeting. The key sentence is: "Further progress in the period ahead in

reducing unemployment and returning inflation to the target was therefore

expected, although this progress was likely to be gradual". We note that this

differs from the Minutes for April and May, which instead included the

statements that "members agreed that it was more likely that the next move in

the cash rate would be up rather than down ... members also agreed that there

was not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy". We

interpret this as a prudent tactic, omitting these statements from the Minutes

now to avoid them becoming a key focus for markets. The RBA Governor in his

speech of June 13 restated the line "it is likely that the next move in interest

rates will be up, not down", confirming that this remains the RBA's central case

view.