VIEW: Westpac write the following:........>

AUSTRALIA: VIEW: Westpac write the following: "Activity in the Australian

economy contracted by 0.3% in the March quarter of 2020, broadly in line with

market exp., slowing annual growth to 1.4% from 2.2%. We are now forecasting a

contraction in the June quarter of 7% (revised up from -8.5%) pushing Australia

into its first recession (often defined as two consecutive falls in quarterly

GDP) since the first half of 1991. With evidence of an earlier than expected

easing in restrictions we have rebalanced somewhat our forecast growth profile

to: -0.3% in Q1; -7.0% in Q2; +1.5% in Q3 and +2.0% in Q4. Through the year the

economy is now forecast to contract by 4% with a contraction of 7.3% in H1 and

growth of 3.5% in H2. The growth profile in Q3 and Q4 has been revised from

-0.6% and +5.2% to reflect the earlier than anticipated easing of restrictions.

For 2021 we now expect growth of 3%, down from 4% reflecting our key constraint

that the economy is still expected to be operating below its December 2019

capacity (by 1.1%) in December 2021. The unemployment rate is expected to fall

to around 8% by September 2020 (from 9% in June 2020) and hold there in the

December quarter despite the expected lift in growth in H2 of 3.5%."