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RBNZ: VIEW: Westpac write "the Reserve Bank kept the OCR on hold at 1.50%.
However, the RBNZ seems to have ramped up the likelihood that the OCR will be
reduced further. While the media release noted only that "a lower OCR may be
needed", the record of the Monetary Policy Committee's meetings showed that "The
members agreed that more support from monetary policy was likely to be
necessary." The detail of the press release and the record of meetings show
growing concern about global conditions. The RBNZ's view is that "The weaker
global economy is affecting New Zealand through a range of trade, financial, and
confidence channels." The RBNZ was more circumspect about developments in the
domestic economy. The softer housing market and the increase in government
spending in the Budget were seen as offsetting factors. Given the tone of this
statement from the RBNZ, we remain of the view that the RBNZ will most likely
cut the OCR in August. The repeated comment that a lower OCR may be needed is
blunter than the language used in March, which was followed by a cut in May."