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Virgin Money EUR Issue: See FV c.MS+110bp But Deal Risk Could Mean Wider Pricing

FINANCIALS

Virgin Money issuing benchmark EUR bond today (VMUK LN) – we see fair value nearer MS+110bp but deal risk may mean pricing will come wider.


  • *IPT: VIRGIN MONEY UK €BENCHMARK 4NC3 MS+170 AREA - BBG.
  • Bank is subject to an agreed takeover by (better-rated) NWIDE (announced 7-Mar-24) which, to our mind, should improve its credit profile. Results on 6-Feb were broadly in line and the equity rose marginally on the day.
  • VM’s ’28 bond (see graphic) is c.70bp tighter than pre-bid and was trading at over MS+200bp as recently as early-Feb-24. Fair value based on the current curve looks to be around MS+110bp but this could price wider to compensate for the risk the deal falls through (deal is agreed, so this comes down to competition issues in UK mortgages, a market generally regarded as relatively competitive).

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