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Vivendi Earnings Preview

COMMUNICATIONS
  • FY results tomorrow; market likely very focussed on any updates on the group’s breakup plans announced in December that would form four separately listed entities (Pay TV (Canal+), Advertising (Havas), Publishing (Lagardere & Prisma) and Investments (incl. UMG and TITIM).
  • Vivendi bond docs includes make-whole provisions if “all or substantially all” of the business is disposed of though this can be waived with bondholder approval. FY23 consensus figures put Canal+ and Havas at 62% and 29% of group revenue so the relevance of the breakup is clear.
  • Noting Vivendi bonds all trading close to par having rallied since the announcement on the likelihood that the make-whole provisions will be triggered.
  • M&A at Canal+ will also likely be in focus after increasing their offer for Multichoice – noting analyst commentary on MultiChoice indicating that full consolidation is probable though regulatory hurdles remain.
  • The market is looking for FY Rev +4% YoY with flat Op Income and a near doubling at the bottom line.
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